Marketmind: Battered bond market braces for payrolls
12:50 am Friday, July 07th, 2023
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook
Bond markets are in a world of pain, with yields catapulted to decade highs across developed markets.
The trigger is not immediately clear, selling having begun before private U.S. payrolls data landed on Thursday, but the momentum has stopped out those positioned for peak rates and has hit the longer end of the curve particularly hard.
Non-farm U.S. payrolls due at 1230 GMT will present another conundrum that’s unlikely to end well for bonds. Is a strong figure good for risk, since it means recession is being avoided? Or is it bad news because it implies higher interest rates?
Dealers in Asia reckoned either is bad for bonds, which were under pressure around the region. Aussie ten-year yields joined gilt yields at decade highs.
Treasuries nursed losses from a two-day rout.
Asian stocks slid to five-week lows.
Adding to the dour mood in Asia was a selloff in Chinese banks, which have become the latest focal point for worry about the disappointing state of the world’s second-biggest economy.
An editorial in China’s state-backed Securities Times said on Friday that Goldman Sachs’ downgrade of Chinese banking stocks was based on pessimistic assumptions that investors would be ill-advised to follow.
Yet, follow they have done, as Hong Kong’s banking index slid toward a weekly loss of 10%, its worst showing in five years. The twin concerns – higher rates and slowing Chinese growth – seem to have finally put the brakes on stocks.
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
U.S. non-farm payrolls
(Reporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Edmund Klamann)
