(Reuters) – China’s exports fell 14.5% in July year-on-year, while imports contracted 12.4%, customs data showed on Tuesday, in the worst showing for outbound shipments from the world’s second-largest economy since February 2020.

A Reuters poll of economists had forecast a 12.5% fall in exports and a 5.0% drop in imports.

KEY POINTS:

* Soybeans: July imports at 9.73 mmt, up 23.5% y/y; Jan-July imports at 62.3 mmt, up 15% y/y

* Crude oil: July imports at 43.69 mmt, up 17% y/y; Jan-July imports at 326 mmt, up 12.4% y/y

* Iron ore: July imports at 93.48 mmt, up 2.5% y/y; Jan-July imports at 669 mmt, up 6.9% y/y

* Copper: July imports at 451,159 mt, down 2.7% y/y

Preliminary table of commodity trade data

Below are comments from analysts on the commodities data.

COMMENT ON SOYBEANS

WANG MINGWEI, SOYBEAN ANALYST AT DAYUE FUTURES, HANGZHOU

“Data on soybean imports in July was not surprising. Brazil’s soybean harvest and export progress this year has lagged under the influence of the weather, and China’s customs have increased inspections of soybean arrivals earlier this year, both have delayed the peak number of arrivals.”

“Import figures for the remaining four months of the year are likely to gradually come down as soybean sales in Brazil have largely ended and U.S. soybeans are yet to hit the market.”

COMMENT ON IRON ORE

CAI YONGZHENG, DIRECTOR AT JIANGSU FUSHI DATA RESEARCH INSTITUTE, NANJING

“The month-on-month fall in imported (iron ore) volume in July is totally in line with our expectation as overseas shipments in the month fell. Also, the environmental restrictions (in Tangshan) hampered demand. Moreover, mills remained cautious about purchasing volumes as margins only mildly improved within the month.”

COMMENT ON CRUDE

EMMA LI, CHINA CRUDE OIL ANALYST AT VORTEXA, SINGAPORE

“The month-on-month decline was led by lower imports from the big-3 crude exporters, namely the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia, which have cut exports amid reduced production targets and/ or higher domestic demand.”

COMMENT ON COPPER

LYNN ZHAO, COMMODITY STRATEGIST AT MACQUARIE, SHANGHAI.

“The decline in import is due to closed price arbitrage, with LME price outperforming SHFE and domestic production running at a higher rate, and import from Africa yet to jump due to logistics constraints at its ports.”

LINKS:

For details, see the official Customs website

(www.customs.gov.cn)

BACKGROUND:

China is the world’s biggest crude oil importer and top buyer of coal, iron ore and soybeans.

(Reporting by Asia Commodities and Energy team; Editing by Rashmi Aich)

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