Morning Bid: Jobs in focus after the rebound

12:31 am Wednesday, August 21st, 2024

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook

Markets’ sparkling recovery from early August’s sell-off has hit an air pocket, with Asian shares down on Wednesday and Tuesday’s small drop leaving the S&P 500 a day short of matching a 20-year-old winning streak.

A yen at 145.5 per dollar, and rising, sapped sentiment in Japanese stocks and news that Walmart is looking to sell its JD.com stake sent the Chinese online retailer’s shares slumping in Hong Kong, after what had been a big bounce on an upbeat earnings report.

Market momentum is stumbling more or less where the selling began two weeks ago and brings us full circle on the economic outlook: waiting on data to gauge the risk of recession and watching polling to gauge the U.S. presidential contest.

Former U.S. President Barack Obama returned to the national stage on Tuesday night to boost his longtime Democratic ally Kamala Harris in her 11th-hour presidential bid against Republican Donald Trump.

Fed minutes are due later on Wednesday, along with revisions to U.S. labour data. Goldman Sachs expects a downward revision in the range of 600,000 to 1 million jobs added, although it argues this would overstate the weakness of the labour market.

Much will also depend on the U.S. labour report due on Sept. 6, with the job market in greater focus now that inflation seems to be trending lower.

Rates markets have fully priced a 25 basis point U.S. interest rate cut for September and a near 1/3 chance of a 50 bp cut, driving the dollar down steadily on just about everything.

Gold has notched records above $2,500 an ounce this week and the euro is in unfamiliar territory at $1.11.

Some analysts see risks if the labour market seems stronger than expected, or if Fed Chair Jerome Powell doesn’t sound very dovish in a speech he is due to give at Jackson Hole on Friday.

CNN’s fear and greed index, derived from conditions in stock, options and credit markets, has recovered to neutral from “extreme fear” just a week ago. But investors seem to want new data to validate the benign outlook before plunging in again.

Data in Asia on Wednesday showed Japanese exports lagging expectations, while South Korean exports for the first 20 days of August went up 18.5% from a year earlier.

Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:

Economics: U.S. labour data revisions

Policy: U.S. Federal Reserve minutes

(Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)