By Leroy Leo

(Reuters) – AbbVie Inc is likely to beat Wall Street sales estimates for Humira in the second quarter as the only copycat in the U.S. market for the blockbuster arthritis drug struggled to gain traction.

Humira sales are likely to decline when the company reports on Thursday but that would mostly be due to the discounts AbbVie has offered to shield itself from prescription share erosion, analysts have said.

The drugmaker has forecast a 37% drop in Humira sales in 2023 and expects a majority of the hit in the second half following the launch of more than half-a-dozen biosimilars in July.

The first biosimilar of one of the world’s biggest selling drug, Amjevita from Amgen Inc, has not been able to switch Humira patients as much as analysts had estimated since its launch in January.

“Amjevita is competing with Humira on new patients so far. It hasn’t really taken share on existing patients,” BNP Paribas Exane analyst Navann Ty said.

Humira remains a key product for three of the largest U.S. pharmacy benefit managers CVS Caremark, Cigna’s Express Script and UnitedHealth’s OptumRx, Deutsche Bank Securities analysts said earlier this month.

THE CONTEXT

Usually prices fall, often dramatically, when multiple generic or biosimilar versions of a widely-used medication enter the market.

Amgen’s drug offers as much as a 55% discount to AbbVie’s $6,922 per month Humira price tag, and is included on drug coverage lists at two large pharmacy benefit managers.

Amgen declined to comment on the analysts’ comments, saying it would talk about Amjevita demand when it report its financial results next week.

Analysts on average expect AbbVie to generate $13.8 billion in global sales of Humira this year, sharply lower than $21.2 billion generated in 2022.

AbbVie is banking on its other immunology drugs Rinvoq and Skyrizi to offset the sales erosion from Humira over the long term.

THE FUNDAMENTALS

** 16 analysts, on average, forecast AbbVie’s second-quarter revenue to be $13.52 billion, according to Refinitiv, compared with $14.58 billion that the company reported a year earlier

** 16 analysts, on average, forecast Abbvie’s second-quarter adjusted profit per share to be $2.81, compared with $3.37 last year

WALL STREET SENTIMENT

** Of 30 analysts covering AbbVie, 15 rate it buy or higher, while the other 15 rate “hold”

** The median price target for AbbVie is $162, a 14.4% upside to its last closing price

(Reporting by Leroy Leo in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila)

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