By Liz Lee

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s exports likely climbed at a quicker pace in July as manufacturers benefited from stronger orders from the ongoing upturn in the global merchandise trade, which is expected to keep exports robust and dull tariff scares.

Trade data on Wednesday is expected to show exports grew 9.7% year-on-year by value, according to the median forecast of 30 economists in a Reuters poll, up from the 8.6% increase in June, and would be the largest expansion since a 14.8% gain in March last year.

A fourth straight month of export growth would provide a silver lining to an otherwise depressed economic mood in the world’s second-largest economy, which is still struggling for momentum despite efforts to stimulate domestic demand following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Imports likely grew 3.5% last month, flipping from a surprise decline of 2.3% seen in June, suggesting factory owners are purchasing more parts and materials to be turned into finished goods for export.

South Korea, a leading indicator of China’s tech imports, saw its China-bound exports leap 14.9% to a 21-month high of $11.4 billion last month.

For the second quarter, China’s economy grew 4.7%, a slower-than-expected pace blamed on a protracted property downturn and job insecurity, and kept alive expectations Beijing will need to unleash even more stimulus.

Analysts are optimistic of the Chinese economy regaining momentum in the second half of the year, with a glimmer of hope that support measures so far are somewhat nudging the property sector towards stability.

More fiscal stimulus and continued export strength are expected to bolster China’s near-term growth, Capital Economics said last month.

Tariffs and the threat of additional duties loom over China’s trade but the $18.6 trillion dollar economy’s competitiveness across multiple sectors could blunt the impact of new trade restrictions.

The United States announced in May plans to raise tariffs on an array of Chinese products on Aug. 1 but decided it would delay some of them, while the European Commission, which oversees European Union trade, saw divided views on its provisional duties set last month on Chinese electric vehicles.

Canada is considering tariffs on Chinese EVs while Turkey has imposed an additional 40% tariff on Chinese vehicles. In Asia, Indonesia has planned heavy import duties on textile products and India is monitoring cheap Chinese steel imports.

China’s manufacturing activity slipped to a five-month low in July as factories grappled with falling new orders and low prices.

But a ramping up of policy support could underpin a recovery in activity in the coming months.

China’s July trade surplus is forecast at $99 billion, according to the poll, slightly lower than $99.05 billion in June.

(Reporting by Liz Lee; Polling by Rahul Trivedi and Susobhan Sarkar in Bangalore; and Wang Jing in Shanghai; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)

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