Estee Lauder withdraws annual forecasts on uneven China recovery, new CEO

9:34 am Thursday, October 31st, 2024

By Ananya Mariam Rajesh

(Reuters) -Estee Lauder shares slumped nearly 24% on Thursday after it pulled back annual sales and profit forecasts as the luxury cosmetics giant grapples with an uncertain timeline for China demand recovery while a new CEO takes helm.

The company, which named insider Stephane de La Faverie as CEO on Wednesday to turnaround the business, also nearly halved its quarterly dividend payout. He is set to take over on Jan. 1.

Demand in the beauty sector in China and Asia Travel retail – sales at airports or travel destinations like Korea and China’s Hainan – has slowed in the past year and impacted even “affordable luxuries” such as lipsticks and fragrances.

“We anticipate still-strong declines near-term for the industry in China and Asia travel retail,” outgoing CEO Fabrizio Freda said.

The China government had earlier this month pledged stimulus to revive its economy, but Estee said it does not expect a boost in the second quarter performance.

Its first-quarter sales in the Asia Pacific region fell 11%, compared to a 3% decline in the prior quarter. Americas sales also declined 2%.

“Competition is fierce for cosmetics and consumers in other important regions such as the US aren’t spending as freely as they’ve done in recent years,” said Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell.

Last week, European peer L’Oreal, which missed quarterly sales expectations, flagged poor spending in the region, with CEO Nicolas Hieronimus calling the weakness in travel retail as an “unexpected turbulence.”

The damage is not limited to the cosmetics firms. Other luxury players including LVMH, Italy’s Salvatore Ferragamo and Hermes have been hit by China demand slump as price hikes from luxury brands in a weak economy are prompting some shoppers to look for cheaper ways to buy them.

Estee Lauder expects second-quarter profit per share between 20 cents and 35 cents, compared with estimates of $1.06, according to estimates compiled by LSEG.

It expects net sales to drop between 6% and 8%, compared with an estimate of 0.24% rise to $4.29 billion.

The company, whose shares have already dropped 40% this year, declared a quarterly dividend of 35 cents per share.

“(The dividend cut) further speaks to the difficulty in forecasting the timing of a material improvement in results,” Dana Telsey, analyst at Telsey Advisory Group said.

In the last two months, Estee is the third consumer-facing company after Nike and Starbucks to pull back annual forecasts following a change at the helm.

(Reporting by Ananya Mariam Rajesh in Bengaluru, Additional reporting by Dominique Patton in Paris)