(Reuters) – Brokerages, including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, have reiterated their expectation of a quarter-point interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve at the central bank’s policy meeting later on Wednesday.

Some observers are forecasting a “hawkish cut”, while the focus will also be on policymakers’ updated interest rate outlooks and economic forecasts covering the first months of the incoming Trump administration.

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages ahead of Fed’s decision:

Rate cut estimates (in bps)

Brokerages Dec 2024 2025 Fed Funds Rate

BofA Global 25 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of

Research June)

Barclays 25 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of

2025)

Macquarie 25 25 4.00%-4.25%

Goldman Sachs 25 75 3.50%-3.75% (through

(through September 2025)

September

2025)

J.P.Morgan 25 75(throug 3.75% (through

h September 2025)

September

2025)

*UBS Global 25 125 3.00%-3.25% (through

Research end of 2025)

TD Securities 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through

end of 2025)

Morgan Stanley 25 100 3.375% (Q4 2025)

(through

June

2025)

Jefferies 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through

end of 2025)

Nomura 25 25 4.00%-4.25% (through

end of 2025)

*UBS Global Wealth 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through

Management end of 2025)

Deutsche Bank 25 No Rate 4.375%

Cuts

Citigroup 25 – 3.00%-3.25% (H1

2025)

Societe Generale 25 – –

HSBC 25 100 3.25%-3.50%

Wells Fargo 25 25 4.00%-4.25%

Investment

Institute

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli, Devika Syamnath, Maju Samuel and Shounak Dasgupta)

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