Futures edge higher with payrolls revisions, Fed minutes on tap

7:29 am Wednesday, August 21st, 2024

By Shashwat Chauhan and Johann M Cherian

(Reuters) -U.S. stock index futures inched up on Wednesday, as investors awaited the release of the updated U.S. payrolls data and the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting.

The report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with preliminary revisions to the jobs data, is due at 10:00 a.m. ET. Most economists expect a downward revision, with Goldman Sachs estimating that 600,000 to 1 million fewer jobs were created between April 2023 and March 2024.

“A stronger number would also not change much to the Federal Reserve’s easing trajectory as the latest job data is already hinting at a cooling labour market,” strategists at ING wrote in a morning note.

Minutes from the Fed’s last policy meeting are also due later in the day, ahead of Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Friday.

“We expect the Fed chairman to continue to signal that a first rate cut is on the cards for September. Yet there is a chance that investors could be disappointed by the comments, if there are any references to the stickiness of inflation,” said Guy Stear, head of developed markets strategy at the Amundi Investment Institute.

Financial markets are currently pricing in a 69.5% likelihood of a 25 basis-points interest rate cut by the Fed in September, with a 30.5% chance of a super-sized 50 bps cut, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman on Tuesday said she remains cautious about any shift in central bank policy as she sees continued upside risks for inflation, warning that overreacting to any single data point could put progress made against inflation at risk.

At 06:59 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 68 points, or 0.17%, and S&P 500 E-minis were up 9.75 points, or 0.17%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 31.5 points, or 0.16%.

Wall Street’s main indexes closed marginally lower on Tuesday, breaking their recent winning streak.

Risk appetite had returned to global equities last week following sharp declines earlier this month, boosted by the likelihood of rate cuts from the U.S. central bank in September, with all three major U.S. benchmarks now at levels seen before the sell-off.

Among top premarket movers on Wednesday, Target jumped 13% after the retailer raised its annual profit forecast and posted upbeat quarterly comparable sales as more Americans shopped at its stores, drawn by low-priced groceries and essentials.

U.S.-listed shares of Chinese e-commerce firm JD.com dropped 7% after Reuters reported that Walmart, the company’s biggest shareholder, has sold its entire stake in the firm. Walmart’s shares were up nearly 1%.

Macy’s lowered its annual net sales forecast as lingering weakness in U.S. consumer spending dashed hopes of a turnaround in demand for big-ticket discretionary goods, sending the retailer’s shares down 8%.

Keysight Technologies gained 11.8% after the electronic equipment maker beat third-quarter revenue and profit estimates.

Overall, U.S. stock trading volumes have been light this month as many investors are away for summer break.

(Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Varun H K and Shinjini Ganguli)