Italy unlikely to reach its 2024-2025 GDP goals, Bank of Italy and budget watchdog say

9:21 am Tuesday, November 05th, 2024

ROME (Reuters) -The Italian government’s growth targets for 2024 and 2025 now look hard to achieve, the country’s central bank and budget watchdog UPB said on Tuesday.

The Treasury set a growth target of 1% this year and 1.2% in 2025 in its multi-year budget plan unveiled in September.

Italian gross domestic product stagnated in the third quarter compared with the previous three months, preliminary data showed last week, missing forecasts and casting a shadow over growth prospects in the euro zone’s third largest economy.

Barring further revisions, reaching 1% growth this year would require a very strong GDP reading in the fourth quarter, which the Bank of Italy said looks unlikely.

“According to recent data, which is still insufficient to paint a complete and reliable picture, economic activity is seen struggling to regain momentum at the end of this year,” the central bank said in parliamentary testimony on Rome’s 2025 budget.

Italy’s strong growth rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic, fueled by costly government-funded building incentives, is already petering out.

ING economist Paolo Pizzoli said after the third quarter flash estimate that without a strong fourth quarter rebound this year’s growth would be no higher than 0.5-0.6%, following last year’s 0.7% rate.

Budget watchdog UPB also warned on Tuesday that the government’s estimates were increasingly subject to downside risks.

“Next year’s target relies heavily on domestic demand, which depends to a large extent on the implementation of Italy’s post-COVID recovery plan,” UPB said.

Italy has spent around 45% of the more than 100 billion euros ($108.96 billion) it has received so far from European Union COVID-19 recovery funds, short of a target set in 2022.

Implementation of the plan is seen by investors and rating agencies as an important measure of Italy’s ability to boost its sluggish economy and keep in check the country’s creaking public finances.

($1 = 0.9178 euros)

(Reporting by Giuseppe Fonte, editing by Gavin Jones)