Marketmind: Still seeking decisive stimulus in China

12:33 am Tuesday, June 20th, 2023

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Sonali Desai

Disappointment has been the prevailing sentiment so far this week as investors grow impatient with the wait for more decisive Chinese stimulus measures. Events in Asia only added to the mood on Tuesday.

China delivered the expected 10 basis-point reduction to its lending benchmarks, but disappointed those looking for a bigger cut to the mortgage-linked five-year loan prime rate. Chinese property stocks took a hit and the yuan came under further pressure, reversing much of its bounce against the U.S. dollar late last week when stimulus expectations were driving price action.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s June 6 meeting minutes showed its surprise decision to raise interest rates had been “finely balanced”, sending the Aussie dollar down 0.70% as markets scaled back expectations of a follow-up hike in July.

Still, that helped Australian shares build on recent gains to reach a seven-week high, bucking declines across Asian bourses where rising Treasury yields and souring anticipation of Chinese stimulus efforts spurred broad declines.

While more positive signals from U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s long-overdue visit to China sparked some hope of an improvement in ties, any warming in trade relations is likely to remain a hard sell in Congress.

The wary investor mood is likely to spill into Europe, where the data calendar is confined to German producer prices for May. Comments from policymakers are likely to attract greater interest, with European Central Bank Vice-President Luis de Guindos, Bank of Spain Governor Pablo Hernandez de Cos and Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn all scheduled to speak, and a rate cut is expected in Hungary.

Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:

German producer prices

Hungary rate decision

ECB bank supervisor Elizabeth McCaul and Vice President Luis de Guindos speak

Federal Reserve St Louis President James Bullard speaks at the Barcelona School of Economics

(Reporting by Sonali Desai; Editing by Christopher Cushing)