A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman Daga

Asian shares edged up from their lowest levels in about one month but trading was slow ahead of minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting and a reading on core inflation, with rising interest rates still seen as a risk for markets.

In Europe, money markets show that investors are already betting on a peak European Central Bank rate around 3.75% by late summer, up from levels around 3.4% earlier this month.

Investors are unwinding earlier bets after a string of hawkish comments from policymakers, forcing European shares to retreat further from one-year highs.

ECB officials have highlighted their fears about stubborn underlying inflation.

The central bank raised rates by 50 basis points this month and pre-announced another increase of the same size for March 16 but it kept an open mind about future moves, with most policymakers expecting another rate hike in May.

Inflation isn’t going away any time soon https://www.reuters.com/graphics/MARKETS-INFLATION/klvygdxkovg/chart.png

Geopolitical tensions heightened again as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi of consequences should China provide material support to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, saying in an interview after the two met that Washington was concerned Beijing was considering supplying weapons to Moscow.

Meanwhile, in a week when India hosts the year’s first G20 finance and central bank chiefs meeting, from Feb. 22-25, tough global discussions over debt forgiveness for poor nations are going to get even trickier.

China, the world’s largest bilateral creditor, is under fire for playing tough on terms.

Stand-out items on this week’s economic calendar include the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, earnings reports from big U.S. retailers, global flash PMIs, and inflation readings from the euro zone and Japan.

Global business activity https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-ECONOMY/PMI/klvygdwxevg/chart.png

Elsewhere, the race to buy Manchester United gathered steam with Jim Ratcliffe’s company INEOS confirming it had bid for the club, while a source told Reuters that U.S. hedge fund Elliott Investment Management was also prepared to finance a takeover.

Any sale of the Premier League giant would likely exceed the biggest sports deal so far: the $5.2 billion including debt and investments paid for Chelsea.

The Glazers began looking at options for record 20-time English champions United, 17 years after they bought the Old Trafford club for 790 million pounds ($951 million) as part of a highly leveraged deal.

Underlying the weakness in property markets, average asking prices for British residential property rose by just 14 pounds in February from January, the smallest rise on record for a month which normally sees a big seasonal increase, data from property website Rightmove showed on Monday.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

Economic data: Euro zone Feb consumer confidence

U.S. markets closed

(Reporting by Anshuman Daga; Editing by Edmund Klamann)

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