Safe-haven yen gains, Aussie wobbles as edgy markets face US jobs test
2:02 am Wednesday, September 04th, 2024
By Kevin Buckland
TOKYO (Reuters) -The safe-haven Japanese yen rallied on Wednesday while riskier currencies like the Australian dollar and sterling languished as traders ducked for cover following the worst sell-off in almost a month on Wall Street and big losses for Asian stocks.
The catalyst was ostensibly some soft U.S. manufacturing data, which fanned worries about a hard landing for the world’s biggest economy, with traders already nervous ahead of crucial monthly payrolls data on Friday.
“The bears are back with a bang,” said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, while adding that the poor factory figures on their own did not justify a market response of such scale.
“It does, however, speak to the heightened sensitivity of participants to incoming data, particularly downside surprises.”
The yen strengthened as much as 0.4% to 144.89 per dollar before last trading up about 0.2% at 145.15 as of 0525 GMT, following a 1% rally overnight against a broadly stronger dollar.
The dollar-yen pair tends to track long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which dropped nearly 7 basis points (bps) overnight and continued to decline in Asian hours to stand at 3.8253% as investors flocked to the safety of bonds.
The dollar, though, was firm against most other major peers, as it tends to draw safety bids even when the U.S. economy is the focus of concern.
Sterling was flat at $1.3117, after weakening 0.23% overnight. The euro rose 0.13% to $1.1058, following a 0.26% decline in the previous session.
The Swiss franc, another safe haven, strengthened about 0.26% to 0.8480 per dollar.
The Aussie slipped a further 0.13% to $0.67025, extending Tuesday’s 1.2% tumble. It had earlier dropped as much as 0.4%.
Cryptocurrencies also faltered, with bitcoin and ether slipping about 2.9% and 3.4%, respectively.
Risks to the U.S. soft-landing scenario – which had been gaining traction recently in markets – saw traders raise odds of a 50 basis point (bp) Federal Reserve interest rate cut on Sept. 18 to 38% from 30% a day earlier, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Economists surveyed by Reuters expect Friday’s report to show an increase of 165,000 U.S. jobs in August, up from a rise of 114,000 in July.
Ahead of that, investors will keep a close eye on job openings data on Wednesday and the jobless claims report on Thursday.
U.S. markets had been closed for the Labor Day holiday on Monday and came back Tuesday to a weak Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey that suggested factory activity in the country would remain subdued for a while.
“That was supposed to show a gain, but actually showed a decline, and has made people wonder once more about the Fed possibly being too late to act,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.
“This may be a short week but it will be an important and crucial one for investor confidence,” he added. “People are going to remain on edge.”
(Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Sonali Paul, Shri Navaratnam and Muralikumar Anantharaman)
