By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. stocks closed slightly lower after a choppy session on Monday, as investors prepared for a crucial week in which Americans will elect a new president and the Federal Reserve will announce its policy statement.

Presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris both scrambled for an edge in the last full day of a race that polls show as extremely close. It could take days to determine the victor.

Some of the so-called “Trump trades” unwound after a recent poll showed Harris, the Democratic vice president, leading in Iowa, sparking a drop in the U.S. dollar , Treasury yields <US10YT=RR> and bitcoin . Trump Media & Technology Group closed up 12.37%, bouncing back from early losses of nearly 6%.

In light of the Iowa poll, Harris’ odds against the Republican former president improved on several betting sites, which many market participants eye as election indicators.

“Since we’re going to take until Thursday or so, at least, to figure out who won, unfortunately this is going to be a pretty volatile week,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York.

“Earnings are going well, the Fed is still likely to cut interest rates, the only true uncertainty is the election, and hopefully that will be finalized sooner rather than later so investors can go back to investing.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 257.59 points, or 0.61%, to 41,794.60, the S&P 500 lost 16.11 points, or 0.28%, to 5,712.69 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 59.93 points, or 0.33%, to 18,179.98.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note was last off 6.4 basis points (bps) at 4.299%, after initially dropping as much as 10 bps. Volatile trading was expected until the election is decided and investors are clearer on government policy. The 10-year yield had fallen for five straight months before surging about 48 bps in October.

The Russell 2000 rose 0.4% as falling yields supported small cap stocks, seen as more likely to benefit from lower rates.

CBOE’s Volatility Index, also known as Wall Street’s “Fear Gauge,” inched up to 21.94 and remained above its long-term average of 19.46 as it hovered close to a near-two month high hit last week of 23.42.

Investors were largely pricing in a Fed interest rate cut of 25 bps at its policy announcement on Thursday, with CME’s FedWatch Tool showing markets pricing in a 98% chance of a cut, with only a 2% chance the central bank keeps rates steady.

The biggest gainer among the 11 major S&P sectors was energy, up 1.87% as oil prices climbed after OPEC+ decided to delay plans for an output increase.

Chip heavyweight Nvidia advanced 0.48%. On Friday, S&P Dow Jones Indices said the company would replace Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Intel shares slipped 2.93% to weigh on the Dow.

Hotel operator Marriott International lost 1.59% after cutting its 2024 profit forecast on weak domestic travel demand in the U.S. and China.

Constellation Energy was the worst performer on the S&P 500, tumbling 12.46%. On Friday, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission rejected an agreement to increase the power capacity of an Amazon data center connected directly to Talen Energy’s nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania. The decision weighed on the utilities sector <.SPLRCU>, which fell 1.21%.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.37-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.01-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 posted 10 new 52-week highs and four new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 66 new highs and 128 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.31 billion shares, compared with the 11.71 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; additional reporting by Lisa Mattackal and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by David Gregorio)

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