By Lawrence Delevingne
(Reuters) -Wall Street and global shares gained on Friday, just shy of all-time highs, while the dollar languished around one-year lows after a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the U.S. would soon begin interest rate cuts.
Powell, in a speech on Friday at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, said “the time has come” to cut interest rates as rising risks to the job market left no room for further weakness and inflation was in reach of the Fed’s 2% target, offering an explicit endorsement of an imminent policy easing.
“Powell gave the market just enough dovishness to support the market while avoiding the potential pitfall of inducing fear,” Carl Ludwigson, Managing Director at Bel Air Investment Advisors, said in an email.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%, to 41,037, the S&P 500 also gained 0.8%, to 5,615 – nearing an all time high – and the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.09%, to 17,811.
Europe’s broad STOXX 600 index rose around 0.5%, its highest level in over three weeks and clocking a weekly advance for the third straight week. Asian shares outside Japan had nudged down 0.1%, but Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.4% as investors digested inflation data and remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda flagging a willingness to raise interest rates if the economy and inflation turn out as forecast.
That left MSCI’s all country world index up about 0.7%, and with early August’s turmoil in the rear view mirror, it is now trading near its mid-July all-time peak.
Markets are fully priced for a 25 bp U.S. rate cut in September and see a cut at each of the Fed’s three remaining meetings this year, and for one to be a larger 50 bp move.
On the final night of the four-day Democratic National Convention, Vice President Kamala Harris promised to be a “realistic,” “practical” president for all Americans if elected.
U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board on Friday after Powell’s remarks.
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 4.4 basis points to 3.818%, from 3.862% late on Thursday. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 8.2 basis points to 3.928%, from 4.01% late on Thursday.
Its German equivalent was steady at 2.233%. [GVD/EUR]
The dollar turned lower and sterling rose to its highest in more than two years on Friday. [FRX/]
The euro gained to $1.1195, up 0.75% on the day, hitting a one-year high.
The Japanese yen strengthened, with the dollar down 1.2% at 144.53 after Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s comments on rates.
“The yen buying today is understandable given Governor Ueda showed very little sign of a shift in the views and plans of the BoJ following the financial market turmoil earlier this month,” said Derek Halpenny, head of research global markets EMEA at MUFG, in a note to clients.
Data out early in the day showed Japan’s core inflation accelerated for a third straight month, but a slowdown in demand-drive price gains suggest no urgency for any immediate rate hikes.
Oil prices jumped, rebounding after losses earlier in the week on swelling U.S. crude stocks and a weakening demand outlook in China. U.S. crude gained 2.7% to $74.98 a barrel and Brent rose to $79.17 per barrel, up 2.53% on the day. [O/R]
Gold prices added about 1% to $2,511 an ounce, recharging towards the record high of $2,513 hit just on Tuesday.
(Reporting by Lawrence Delevingne in Boston, Alun John in London and Stella Qiu in Sydney. Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Susan Fenton and Nick Zieminski)